NEWS AND NEAR NEWS

Ravens, Cowboys projected to lead comp pick parade in 2025 … The compensatory picks for the 2025 draft won’t be formally determined by the league’s Management Council formula until after the upcoming season is over, but several sources have become pretty good at projecting which teams will be awarded which comp picks. One of those is projecting that both Baltimore and Dallas will be awarded the maximum 4 extra picks with the Ravens getting bonus picks in the 4th and 5th rounds and a pair in the 6th, while the Cowboys are projected to get three in the 5th round and another in the 6th. At the same time, the LA Chargers, Miami and San Francisco are each projected to get three comp picks. Another 5 teams – Buffalo, Cleveland, Kansas City, Las Vegas and Seattle are projected to get two comp picks each, while Green Bay, Minnesota, New Orleans, the LA Rams and the NY Giants get one each. Here is the full report.

Ravens first to sign 2024 draft picks … Baltimore became the first team to sign any of its picks from last weekend’s draft as the Ravens came to terms with 5 rookie selections including CB Nate Wiggins their 1st round pick. Also signing with the Ravens were OT Roger Rosengarten, a 2nd round  selection and 4th round CB TJ Tampa, along with C Nick Samac and DB Sanoussi Kane, a pair of 7th round picks.

Post-draft reading … For those still suffering a post-draft letdown, here are several draft-related articles for folks that have not seen them yet including one at ESPN with a discussion of next year’s QB class, another from USA Today with some stats on the success rate of different positions taken in the first-round, and a piece at CBS Sports about what the punditry got wrong at last week’s draft. Have a great day!

Giants Report: Thoughts on the draft … We kind of wanted several days to chew on last weekend’s draft before commenting too extensively, especially as it relates to the Giants. On balance, though, we thought the Giants had an outstanding draft, although of course the players chosen still have to play to their potential, but there’s a lot of potential there! Read more

CFL’s Elks make vet LB top pick … As expected, Edmonton chose former Cincinnati LB Joel Dublanko with the first pick overall at last night’s CFL draft of Canadian players. Dublanko actually came late to the process; he was a 2022 grad at Cincinnati and was in a couple of NFL camps last summer before playing the 2023 season in the USFL, but was granted late eligibility for the CFL draft when he was deemed eligible for the CFL draft  because his father is a Canadian. Ottawa with the 2nd pick overall chose Auburn WR Nick Mardner while Saskatchewan selected Boston College OG Kyle Hergel with the 3rd pick. Hergel has signed as an undrafted free agent with New Orleans, but is considered to be a long shot to make the Saints’ roster this fall. On the other hand, most of the CFL’s top prospects who were selected at last weekend’s NFL draft weren’t selected until the later rounds. In fact, OG Isaiah Adams, the CFL Scouting Bureau’s top overall prospect, wasn’t selected at all last night after he was taken in the 3rd round of the NFL draft by Arizona. Meanwhile, OG Giovanni Manu was a 5th round pick by Winnipeg, while TEs Tanner McLachlan and Theo Johnson went in the 6th and 8th rounds respectively to Calgary and BC.

Draft hilites Growing dominance of power schools … One of the underlying stories from the past two drafts has been the growing dominance of the of the so-called Power-5 programs. This past weekend, for example, 87% of all players selected at the 2024 draft were from a Power 5 school or Notre Dame. And that is up from 80% just a year earlier. Surprisingly, the difference was accounted for almost exclusively in adramatic drop in the number of players selected from non-Power 5 conference teams. In fact, just 19 players were selected this year from the so-called group of 5 conferences, literally half the number from the previous year when 36 prospects from the other FBS conferences had been selected.

Still, 94% of all players selected last week were from an FBS school, while barely 6% – just 14 players in total – were from outside the FBS ranks and just 11 were from FCS or lower U.S. programs. In fact, the FCS/DII total was roughly half the figure it was just two years ago when 23 players selected in 2022 came from outside the ranks of FBS programs. Maybe the only modicum of solace for the smaller schools is the fact that two players from their ranks – Houston Christian DE Jalyk Hunt and Yale OT Kiran Amegadjie – were second day picks with Hunt going to Philadelphia and Amegadjie to the Chicago with 3rd round picks.

At the same time, 3 international players were selected on Saturday including UBC OG Giovanni Muni, whom Detroit actually traded up in the 4th to acquire, and OG Travis Clayton, a former English rugby player who was taken in the 7th round by Buffalo. For the record, Muni was just the 7th Canadian from a Canadian university ever selected at the NFL draft, and the first since Dr. Laurent Duvernay-Tardif who was selected by Kansas City in 2014. Also for the record, a total of 4 Canadians were selected this weekend along with Muni including OG Isaiah Adams, a 3rd round pick by Arizona, and TEs Theo Johnson (a 4th to the NY Giants) and Tanner McLachlan (a 6th by Cincinnati). That tied last year’s record of 4 Canadians being selected in a single draft year. The other ‘international’ player selected this weekend was CB Qwan’Tez Stiggers, the CFL defensive rookie of the year last fall with Toronto, who was selected in the NY Jets in the 5th round.

Also to absolutely no one’s surprise, the SEC once again had the most players of any conference selected at the 2024 draft. Indeed, it was the 18th straight year in which the SEC had the most players selected in a draft. Overall, the SEC had 59 players taken at this weekend’s draft, down slightly from 62 in 2023 and 65 in the previous two years, but still well ahead of the Pac-12, Big Ten and ACC which were bunched with 43, 42, and 41 picks respectively, while the Big XII followed with 31. In contrast, among the other conferences, the Sun Belt had 6 picks, the American Athletic had 5, and CUSA had 3, while the Mountain West and MAC had only 2 apiece. Note, though, that the MAC’s Quinyon Mitchell, taken 22nd overall by Philadelphia, was the only non-Power 5 player taken in this year’s opening round.

However, while the SEC once again led all conferences in picks at the 2024 draft, national champion Michigan actually had the most players selected from any one school. Indeed, 13 former Wolverines were selected this past weekend, the 4th highest total from one program ever. Michigan was followed by Texas with 11, Alabama, LSU and Washington with 10 apiece, Georgia, Oregon and Penn State with 8 each and Notre Dame and Southern California with 7 each. In fact, those 10 schools accounted for over 35% of all players drafted this past weekend. In the end, one can see  why the NFL is quietly pushing the idea of a ‘super’ conference format for college football to ensure that the top prospects play other top prospects every week.

Don’t trade on me … Anyone who got the sense that there didn’t seem to be all that many trades at this year’s draft weren’t dreaming. There actually were significantly fewer trades than in recent years. This year, for example, there were 28 trades made during the draft, compared with 43 last year. Indeed, it used to drive us a little batty when teams would trade up 10 spots or so in the 7th round. Really? It appears, though, that somebody forgot to tell Philadelphia GM Howie Roseman about the plan as Trader Howie, as our Pigskin Paul Guillemete used to affectionately call him, and his Eagles tied an NFL record with 8 individual trades this week. Included in those trades were a trio that netted the Eagles three mid-round picks in 2025. In particular, the Eagles got a third rounder from Miami, a 4th from Detroit and a 5th from Houston in separate deals. That trade with the Lions for a 4th next year is particularly interesting as we wondered if it might actually be for the Eagles original pick in that round which they sent to Detroit last year in the deal for RB D’Andre Swift. Carolina, though, got the highest 2025 pick over the weekend as the acquired the LA Rams pick in the second round in 2025, while Jacksonville got 3rd and 4th rounders from Minnesota in the deal in which the Vikings moved up in the opening round to snare DE Dallas Turner at #17. For the record, it was also a pretty good deal all-around for the Jags who were able to take WR Brian Thomas with the 23rd pick, a guy they liked had targeted with their original selection. What’s interesting about the whole deal is that so far no first round pick in 2025 has been traded and we are not sure the last time that a future #1 wasn’t swapped before or during the draft. Meanwhile, for those that missed it during the draft, the NY Jets acquired a 6th round pick in 2026 from Denver in exchange for DE John Franklin-Myers. Here is the updated list of trades already in the books for 2025 and beyond as we have them.

The grades are in … The one thing we have learned in this business is that you really can’t grade a draft until at least deep into its first year of play in the NFL and that it may actually take several seasons. And that was confirmed big-time last year, for example, when Detroit’s draft was generally being panned and it did was produce a handful of pro bowlers that helped out mightily in getting the Lions to their first conference championship game in over three decades. That said, those at a higher pay grade than ours here and here and here and here have taken at a shot of giving out preliminary grades to last weekend’s picks, but they don’t mean a whole heckuva lot. We will say, though, that we did particularly like what several teams did this past weekend including Arizona, Philadelphia, Chicago, Jacksonville and the LA Rams; however, give us a shout back sometime around November 1st and we’ll talk more!

The other thing we also advise readers is that when it is time to actually evaluate team’s 2024 drafts, don’t conflate grades. The grades today are simply who made good picks based on the consensus of where those players were rated on boards around the league. On the other hand, the grades 2-3 years down the road will be based on which players actually worked out or didn’t. And there really isn’t much connection between the two. Good picks bust and bad picks turn into stars and how that works in reality is 98% luck and the rest is pure chance.

2025 Draft just 365 days away!! … For the record, the 2025 draft is just 363 days away, so to help wile away the time, here is our annual way ‘way-too-early’ projection for next year’s draft. And while its done with more than a little tongue-in-cheek – so please don’t anybody write in asking “what we are smoking because the Buckaroos would never take a …” – it will give people some early idea on what players might be available next year and where they might go based on current thinking, although obviously is going to change between now and April 24th, 2025. Hang in there everybody!!

That’s a wrap; THE end, finished!! … The 2024 draft came to a fitting close just before 7 PM ET this evening when the NY Jets selected former Alabama S Jaylen Key with the 257th and final pick of the draft. Of course, that makes him ‘Mr. Irrelevant’ for the year. And while the actual draft is in the books, there won’t be much rest for NFL personnel people, though, as teams are already calling around looking to sign the top undrafted prospects that weren’t selected this weekend. And there are still a lot of really talented prospects on the board including QBs Sam Hartman, Austin Reed, Kedon Slovis, and Carter Bradley; RBs Kendall Milton, Cody Schrader, Emani Bailey, Dillon Johnson, Daijan Edwards, Frank Gore, Michael Wiley, and Carson Steele; WR Marcus Rosemy-Jacksaint; TEs Brevin Spann-Ford and Jack Westover; OTs Jeremy Flax, Theo Benedet, Ethan Driskell, and Andrew Coker; OGs Javion Cohen, Javontez Spraggins, and Brady Latham; Cs Drake Nugent, Jake Sundell, and Will Putnam; DEs Nelson Ceaser, Eric Watts, Zion Tupuola-Fetui, Trajan Jeffcoat, Gabriel Murphy, Taylor Upshaw and David Ugwoebu; DTs Leonard Taylor, Gabe Hall, Fabian Lovett, Keith Randolph, and Brett Johnson; LBs Curtis Jacobs, Steele Chambers and Aaron Casey; CBs Beanie Bishop and Johnnie Dixon; and safeties Beau Brade, Akeem Dent, Ro Torrence, and Kenny Logan who are all among the prospects at the top of the updated GBN Big Board ranking of the top remaining players. See you next year!!

It is on to the final day of the 2024 draft … The second and third rounds of the 2024 draft came to a close last evening when Washington, with a pick acquired from San Francisco selected former Rice WR Luke McCaffrey with the 100th and final pick of the third round. However, as usual there wasn’t much rest for NFL personnel people as teams were burning the midnight oil again last night re-stacking their boards and setting priorities prior to the start of the fourth round, which gets underway at Noon ET this afternoon with Carolina on the clock with 101st pick.  The busiest teams of the third day, though, look to be Buffalo and Philadelphia which have a league high 8 later round selections each, while Green Bay has 7. At the same time, 10 teams including the LA Rams, LA Chargers, NY Jets, New Orleans, San Francisco, Baltimore, Cincinnati, Denver, Jacksonville, and Tennessee have 6 remaining picks apiece. At the other end of the spectrum, Chicago which did clean up in the opening round with the selection of Caleb Williams and Rome Odunze has just one lonely third day pick. Here is the updated selection order for the 2024 draft, as well as the current picks by team file.

And there are still some very good players still on the board heading into the 3rd day of the draft including WR Troy Franklin, TE Ja’Tavion Sander, S Jaden Hicks, CBs TJ Tampa and Kris Abrams-Draine, RB Jaylen Wright, DEs Brandon Dorlus and Mo Kamara, DT Mehki Wingo, and LBs Jeremiah Trotter and Cedric Gray. Meanwhile, other players still available include QBs Spencer Rattler, Joe Milton, Michael Pratt and Sam Hartman; RBs Will Shipley, Braelon Allen, Bucky Irving and Audric Estime; WRs Tez Walker, Javon Baker, Johnny Wilson and Brendan Rice; TEs Theo Johnson, Cade Stover, Tanner McLachlan, Jared Wiley, and Jaheim Bell; OTs Christian Jones, Javon Foster, and Ethan Driskell; OGs Christian Mahogany, Tanor Bartolini, and Javion Cohen; Cs Sedric Van Pran, Beux Limmer and Drake Nugent; DEs Cedric Johnson, Myles Cole, Nelson Ceasor, Brennan Jackson, Austin Booker, Eric Watts and Javon Solomon; DTs Leonard Taylor, Justin Egboigbe, Gabe Hall, and Jaden Crumedy; LBs Jaylon Ford, Tommy Eichenberg, and Nathaniel Watson; CBs Kalen King, Josh Newton, DJ James, Nehemah Pritchett, and Jarvis Brownlee; safeties Beau Brade, Dadrion Taylor, Demerson, and Jaylin Simpson; and P Tory Taylor. Here is the full list of players still available on the updated GBN Big Board.

Bears, Cards ace opening round … We are always loathe to anoint winners and losers out of the first round of any draft -let’s wait to see who can actually play in the NFL – but it was hard not to like what Chicago and Arizona accomplished in last night’s draft. As we noted last night, the Bears only have 2 picks remaining over the final 6 rounds, but even if they had gone home last night they’d still have one of the most impactful draft classes after selected QB Caleb Williams with the first overall pick and WR Rome Odunze, a big-play target with the 9th pick. Meanwhile, Arizona didn’t get cute and sat tight at #4 and selected WR Marvin Harrison, the consensus top non-QB prospect, and just maybe the best overall prospect period. Then the Cardinals got a sneaky good prospect in DE Darius Robinson, a 285-pounder who had 8.5 sacks at Missouri last fall and dominated at the Senior Bowl, with the 27th selection. At the same time, Minnesota at least made things interesting last night orchestrating the only two trades in the first 20 picks. Certainly, the Vikings had to be thrilled that they were able to get QB JJ McCarthy without having to give much in the way of draft capital, but he was still the 5th QB taken and to our eyes looks too much like Mac Jones; however, its much easier to like what the Vikings did in trading up to get DE/ER Dallas Turner, who many thought would be the first defensive player off the board, with the 17th pick.

We mentioned in an earlier dispatch the several teams that had to be thrilled with the guy still on the board when they picked including Las Vegas (TE Brock Bowers at #13), the LA Rams (making their 1st opening round pick in 8 years getting Jared Verse at #19), Philadelphia (CB Q Mitchell at #22), Jacksonville (WR Brian Thomas at #23) and Detroit (CB Terrion Arnold at #24.) Other picks we liked as being good fits included New Orleans getting OT Taliese Fuaga at #14, Cincinnati getting OT Amarius Mims, who may have as much upside as any player in the draft, at #18, and Pittsburgh getting G/T Troy Fautanu at #20.

On the other hand, we’ll leave it those with higher pay grades to figure out what the heck Atlanta was thinking when they shocked the world selecting QB Michael Penix with the 8th pick. Of course, that comes just after they signed Kirk Cousins to a huge free agent contract. Maybe they take a QB who was just too good to pass on, but its not at all clear that Penix is all that close to that. We also felt that maybe Tennessee could have done more to help Will Levis with the 7th pick. OT JC Latham certainly addresses a need for the Titans but there were some legitimate big-play threats like WR Rome Odunze and TE Brock Bowers still on the board at that spot.

We are also still monumentally perplexed what Buffalo was thinking trading down with Kansas City, the team they are ostensibly chasing every year in the AFC, which allowed the Chiefs to address the one glaring need in their offence, a lack of speed at WR, by selecting Xavier Worthy, he of the record 4.21 40. One has to wonder if maybe the Bills, who lost WRs Stefon Diggs and Gabe Davis this off-season might have used Worthy themselves. To boot, it doesn’t appear as if the Bills got much in return as the compensation didn’t amount to much more than a flip of a couple of picks, including one in the 7th round. And with the addition of the speedy worthy the other AFC contenders have to worry that the Chiefs who have already won three of the past 5 Super Bowls suddenly got exponentially better with the addition of even just the threat of Worthy’s speed. The other team, that we suspect may have gotten significantly better with their opening round pick are the NY Giants who finally got a legit #1 wideout to spark up what has been a very pedestrian offence in WR Malik Nabers and has the potential make a lot of people around him better including embattled QB Daniel Jones.

SEC again leads way in opening round; PAC-12 goes out proud … Pretty much as usual, the SEC had the most players selected in the opening round of the 2024 draft as 11 former players in the conference were taken in the first round. At the same time, the PAC-12 went out with a bang as the conference had 8 players selected including USC QB Caleb Williams, the first player selected overall, while the Big Ten and ACC had 4 players selected each, and the Big XII had 3. In fact, one thing that really jumped out last night was the fact that just about every player selected was from a power conference and most were from traditional football powers. Indeed, counting Notre Dame OT Joe Alt, 31 of the 32 players selected in last night’s draft were from one of the major conferences (or Notre Dame) with Toledo CB Q Mitchell, who was selected 22nd overall by Philadelphia, the lone exception. And while its something of an unofficial count, by our count 24 of the 32 first round picks this year were from power schools which have traditionally been in contention for either national or Power-5 conference titles.

Interesting, though, that unlike recent years no one team really dominated this year’s opening round. Alabama, LSU and Washington, though, did lead the way with three picks each, while Georgia, Penn State and Texas each had two. On the other hand, national champion Michigan only had one player taken in the first round – QB JJ McCarthy – although quite a number of Wolverines are expected to be selected throughout the rest of the draft. Ohio State also only had one player taken in the first round as most of the Buckeyes top prospects opted to return to school for a run at next year’s national championship.

‘We can’t believe our guy was still there’ … Its the morning after in the NFL and as usual just about every GM in the league is gushing about not really expecting the guy they selected in last night’s opening round to have still been on the board when they got on the clock. Most years its just hyperbole, but this year it may very well have been true. It may have been because of the early run on QBs pushing other talented prospects down the board, but pretty much right through the draft, but especially after the first dozen or so picks came off the board, we kept saying to ourselves ‘nice pick, good pick, and even in some cases great pick!’ Teams that really may not have expected their guy to be there included Las Vegas, which got TE Brock Bowers at #13, Minnesota which got DE Dallas Turner at #17, the LA Rams who got DE Jared Verse at #19, Philadelphia which got CB Q Mitchell at #22, Jacksonville which got WR Brian Thomas at #23, and Detroit which got CB Terrion Arnold at #24.

The other thing that kind of jumped out was just how much last night’s opening round went by the numbers. Other than perhaps QBs Michael Penix and Bo Nix who did go earlier than most analysts expected, just about every player selected in the opening round tended to be within picks or so of where they were projected to go. Of the 32 players selected in the opening, 28 for example, were ranked in the top 32 on our big board, while a 29th was ranked 33rd. And we’re not necessarily bragging on ourselves because that was pretty much the same for just about every other prominent analyst out there. In fact, the only two players selected outside our top 40 were the final two picks of the night in WRs Ricky Pearsall and Xavier Legette who were selected 31st and 32nd respectively by San Francisco and Carolina, and even those two players were 41st and 44th on our board and weren’t that big a surprise to go late in the first. In contrast, in past year, one tended to see surprise picks come off the board as early as the late teens, while once we got into the latter part of the opening round it wasn’t unusual to see teams going off the reservation to find a player that fit their specific needs. We’ll see if that trend continues through the second and third rounds which get underway at 7 PM ET later this evening.

One other thing that that jumps out about last night’s draft was just how few trades there ultimately were. Indeed, there were only 5 trades overall, with just two taking place before the 20th pick. As well, two of those picks, Minnesota flipping the 10th and 11th picks with the Jets to get QB JJ McCarthy and Carolina and Buffalo flipping the final pick of the opening round and the first selection tonight, involved teams moving up one spot. In addition, the Panthers-Bills trade for the 32nd and 33rd picks was the only trade involving a 2024 2nd round selection. All that’s against a background in which a whole bunch of trades were being projected prior to the draft.

That’s a wrap … The opening round of the 2024 draft came to a close just a few minutes ago when the Carolina Panthers, with a pick acquired from Kansas City thru Buffalo selected South Carolina WR Xavier Legette with the 32nd and final pick of the night. However, there won’t be much rest for NFL personnel people as teams will be burning the midnight oil re-stacking their boards and resetting priorities prior to the start of the second round, which gets underway at 7 PM ET Friday evening with Buffalo on the clock with the 33nd pick overall. However, while the Bills have the first pick in the second round, the busiest team on the second night, at least barring further trades, looks to be Washington which has 5 picks thru the 2nd and 3rd rounds, while Arizona and Green Bay have four each over the course of Friday evening. At the same time, Houston and Cleveland will make their first appearance of the 2024 draft on Friday, while Minnesota will sit out the second day after trading up twice in the first round. Here is the updated selection order for the 2024 draft, as well as the current picks by team file.

And there are still a lot of really talented prospects on the board including RBs Jonathan Brooks, Trey Benson, Blake Corum and Jaylen Wright; WRs Adonai Mitchell, Troy Franklin, Ladd McConkey, Keon Coleman, and Malachi Corley; TE Ja’Tavion Sanders; OTs Patrick Paul, and Kingsley Saumataia; Cs Jackson Powers-Johnson and Zach Frazier; DE Marshawn Kneeland; DTs Johnny Newton, Braden Fiske and Maason Smith; LB Edgerrin Cooper; CBs Cooper DeJean, Ennis Rakestraw, Kool-Aid McKinstry, Max Melton, Mike Sainristil. Kamari Lassiter and TJ Tampa; and S Tyler Nubin. Here is the full, updated GBN Big Board ranking of the top remaining undrafted players for Friday evening’s second and third rounds.

IT IS DRAFT DAY!!! … Where is everybody?? Of course, the actual draft doesn’t start until 8 PM ET later this evening, but it still promises to be an interesting day as there are just so many possible moves on the table right thru the first round. Do the Patriots stay at #3? Do the Giants and/or Vikings and/or Panthers and/or Raiders move up to get a QB? Do the Chargers and/or the Titans find a trade partner to move down? Do the Bills and/or Chiefs move up for the bottom of the round to get a WR? And that’s just scratching the surface. As usual, we’ll be tracking all the moves over the course of the weekend and we’ll be updating the GBN Big Board as the picks come off the board to give folks an idea what players are still available as the draft evolves. Should be fun!

The evolution of draft coverage … For those that haven’t seen it, the Minneapolis Star-Tribune has a neat article on the evolution of draft coverage and especially the mock draft going back to the 1970s. It certainly resonates with us because in many ways its also how we came to the business. Fact is that back in that era there was almost coverage of the NFL draft at all and if one wanted to follow along you pretty much had to put the stuff together yourself. I can remember back in those days working in a large government office at coffee breaks while people were talking about hockey or the weather or knitting or whatever they’d look over at me and ask what I was doing and I got some really strange looks when I would say I was doing a mock draft!

Not to change the subject, but several correspondents have asked if we were doing a final mock draft. And the simple answer is no. We would have done one if there had been trade or related development, but that hasn’t happened. In the end, we really feel that mocks at this time of the year are virtually useless. There are just so many of them out there that they become meaningless. Its like the man who has a watch knows what time it is, but a man with two watches will never know what time it is.And this year, in particular, there are just so many potential perms and combs once one gets past the first couple of picks nobody’s doing much more than guessing.  Bottom line is that we’ll find out for real tomorrow evening.

Nobody knows … Just a quick follow-up to the earlier report on what appears to be the evolving thinking regarding the top QB prospects in this week’s draft. In that piece we suggested that there appears to be something of  consensus around the league that QBs Caleb Williams and Jayden Williams are legit potential elite franchise players whereas Drake Maye and JJ McCarthy, while still considered to be good prospects, aren’t necessarily viewed as special candidates. That said, we wanted to restate that in fact in the end nobody really knows how these guys are going to fare once they get to the NFL. In fact, there are 6 good QB prospects who will be available on Thursday. How good? Well, the 6 include 2 Heisman trophy winners, the two leading passers in college football over the past couple of seasons and the leader of the undefeated national champions. And just for the record, the 6th guy actually has the best natural physical tools of the bunch. In the end, the odds are that 2-3 of those guys will turn out to be very good NFL players, 2-3 will be jags, and 2-3 will be busts. And the reality is that nobody in the NFL can tell with any more accuracy than if they were throwing darts at a dart board which of those guys are going to end up being which. Remember as recently as last year, for example, that if we had polled all 32 NFL GMs whether they’d take Bryce Young or CJ Stroud, it probaby would have been near unanimous for Young. Indeed, its very likely that Stroud wouldn’t have even got more than a few second place votes. But he had the terrific year and looked all the part of a franchise QB while Young struggled mightily. What’s it all mean? Hard to know other than maybe don’t over think the thing!

No resolution to Falcons, Eagles tampering charges this week … ESPN is reporting at this hour that they have been told there will not a final decision on the allegations of tampering against both Atlanta and Philadelphia. The Falcons have been accused of talking to former Minnesota QB Kirk Cousins prior to signing him as a free agent last month. At the time, the Falcons could only talk to the player’s agent, but reportedly spoke with Cousins directly. Same story for the Eagles who allegedly spoke directly to former Giants’ RB Saquon Barclay before it was permitted. There had been speculation in the case of the Falcons that one possible punishment would be to force them to flip the 8th and 11th picks with Minnesota which would have put the Vikings into better position to move up and grab a QB on Thursday night; however, if there are any draft-related aspects of the two cases they now won’t impact the 2024 draft.

More thoughts on the draft … There are a couple of reports making the rounds this day regarding what’s going on at the top of the board. On the one hand, there is a report that Las Vegas has reached out to Washington about a possible trade for the #2 pick where the Raiders would presumably take LSU QB Jayden Daniels. At the same time, there are reports that New England, which has at least been shopping the 3rd pick, has not yet received any serious offers. What all that may reflect is the fact that while we have generally been talking about the top 4 QBs in this year’s draft, all top QBs are not necessarily equal. In fact, one gets the sense that there is something of a consensus around the league that USC’s Caleb Williams and Daniels are viewed as legit potential elite franchise QBs for whom most teams that need a top-flight passer would empty the vault. At the same time, one gets the sense that Drake Maye of North Carolina and Michigan’s JJ McCarthy are viewed more as good prospects, but still more as developmental types. Maye, for example, has all the prototype physical tools including size, arm strength and athleticism, but hasn’t yet shown elite instincts, while McCarthy aces all the intangible tests, but doesn’t have the big-arm to consistently fit the bill into the tight spaces NFL QBs have to do every week.

Perhaps the biggest tell that such a gap may exist is the very fact that New England, which needs a QB more than any franchise in the league and has an owner on record saying he thinks the Patriots’ biggest need is a passer, is apparently still actively looking to trade down. In fact, we suspect the Patriots may be looking for the kind of package for Maye or McCarthy from teams like the Giants, Minnesota, Denver and Vegas that those teams likely would pay to get a shot at Williams or Daniels, but aren’t anywhere near as inclined to pay that much for what they may view as more developmental types. Of course, we may end up with something of a similar situation if New England opts to sit tight and take Maye when Arizona gets on the clock with the 4th pick. One also gets the sense that the Cardinals haven’t traded the pick already in part because the teams looking to move up want to know whether they’re going to be getting Maye or McCarthy as it appears the former is somewhat more coveted than the latter as Maye’s strengths just aren’t coachable.

Just an interesting note on that last point. In the past 24 hours or so, both Daniel Jeremiah, the NFL Network’s lead draft analyst, and Mel Kiper, ESPN’s top guru, have posted their final top 150 rankings for this week’s draft here and here respectively and neither have McCarthy ranked in their top 10 with Kiper having him at #15 overall and Jeremiah at #20. Of course, they wouldn’t be the first prime draft analysts to miss on a guy, but it is curious given the buzz that has surrounded the former Wolverines’ star the past couple of months.

In fact, while there is all kinds of intrigue about potential trades heading into Thursday night’s opening round, at this point in time, it does not look like much of anything is going to happen until teams actually get on the clock. Should be fascinating.