After an early Worlds, we arrive at the last massive rendezvous of the U23 season, not discounting a few more one-day races in Italy and France. The Tour de l’Avenir is massive, and the course is the best it’s been for a while (sadly, there is still a TTT, not exactly fair at this level, but it’s tradition now).

Therefore, a very wide-ranging field of top riders are here to compete for the Yellow Jersey, making this the hardest stage race I’ve had to rank in terms of start list maybe ever. I did my best to not include too many names, but it was really hard. This may be my final preview this year, start lists depending for the final races, and it’s certainly my last stage race preview since Isard was cancelled, so I went crazy and make it a bumper one. I hope you all enjoy what I hope will be a thrilling conclusion to a great stage race season in the U23 world.

Parcours

Stage 1: Carnac – La Gacilly (142.2km)

On paper, not the hardest opening stage of a race you will see, but with two short, categorised climbs and a lumpy final 40km or so, this is far from easy.

The final is pretty technical, with the road climbing from about km to go to 2km to go, as well as 6 sharp turns between 4km to go and the flamme rouge. The final kilometre starts downhill, but rises up to the line at just over 5%.

I still expect a sprint, but given the messy nature of the lead-in, a fairly chaotic sprint and maybe even some crashes can be expected sadly. A lone attacker could also use the technical final to try and stay clear, but the sprint is the safe bet.

Stage 2: Nozay – Chinon (195km)

A much less complicated sprint stage, thankfully. There is only one categorised climb with about 100km to go, and the final is a lot less technical than the opening day.

There is a sharp right hander at around 3.5km to go, and there is a sort of chicane in the final kilometre, but overall, this does feel a lot safer than the previous day’s race, and again the bunch should sprint it out for the win in Chinon.

Stage 3: Vatan – Issoudun (26.5km TTT)

The organisers here love a TTT, and the long-standing tradition continues here. There is a climb of sorts in the first half of the TTT, but it’s more of a drag up before most of the TTT is then downhill or flat to the finish. There is another kicker in the final kilometre, which will hurt anyone struggling to stay on their team’s pace.

It’s very fair to argue these TTTs can create unfair gaps regarding equipment between teams, and they do create gaps, but most of the top GC teams tend to take riders here who can TT, so it’s very rare to see a GC rider fall out of contention due to this discipline. There will be gaps, but probably not that big between the biggest teams. Expect the likes of the Netherlands, Norway, Denmark, GB, Belgium and even France to be pretty close.

Stage 4: Aigurande – Evaux-les-Bains (150.1km)

This is a pretty hard stage to call, as it is lumpy all day, with a cat three midway and two ascents of a cat 4 in the final (1.7km at 5.6%), the last of which tops out just under 10km to go. Even after that, there is another climb to the finish line, 1.9km at 6.3%, which could also create gaps.

This is a bit of a harder finish than what we have seen so far in the race, and gaps in the TTT could lead to a decent break getting clear, but I still think the puncheurs will want to try and win this one ahead of a different sort of puncheur day tomorrow. The interesting thing will be to see if any sprinters can survive these very short climbs and get there for the sprint to the top of the last one at the finish. It will be a difficult, but not impossible, task.

Stage 5: La Tour-de-Salvagny – Lac d’Aiguebelette (138.3km)

This is the traditional punchy stage, with about 118km  of nearly all flat, followed by two cat three climbs in the final. The first comes with 13.5km to go at the top, 4.7km at 5.1%.

The last climb is shorter and steeper, 2.1km at 6.6%, and the top comes with just 4.5km to go. There is a slight plateau at the top till 2km to go, and then it’s all downhill to the line. This could see a solo rider go clear, or a few riders, although we know cooperation doesn’t always work there. For me, this will either go to a lone raider, or a group of around 20 riders, similar to the stage Romain Gregoire won last year. Again, not a day to win this race, but a day where you do not want to give away time.

Stage 6: Meribel – Col de la Loze (68.5km)

Sick of the Col de la Loze yet? I hope not, as it’s back here, at the race which actually used it first, back in 2019. Then, it was a mass-start climb to the top from the bottom, where Alex Evans of Australia won.

This year, the course is tougher. Leaving Meribel, the riders descend to the valley before climbing a cat two with a very long name. All you need to know is its 5km at 6.2%, and tops out with 22kmr aced. Another descent is followed by an uncategorsied rise of 4.8km at 4.1%, before descending to Brids-les-Bains, the base of Loze.

Marked as 23.3km at 7.3%, you all know by now the climb is pretty constant all the way through Meribel, but then leaves onto the cycle track purpose built for this climb, and the brutality starts. Pitches of 20% is matched by stretches of flat, as the climb spits in the face of modern road construction rules. There are a few kilometres where the climb averages north of 11%.

This climb is a contender for the hardest in the pros, as it is so long, and the steep stuff comes so late on, including that savage final ramp to the summit. This stage and this famous mountain will go a long way to letting us know who wins this whole race, as Mr Pogacar showed just how badly it can wreck a GC bid.

Stage 7: Montricher-Albanne (11.1km TT)

A rare ITT in l’Avenir, but it’s all uphill, 11.1km at 8%, another really tough test. After yesterday, we will know the best climbers in the race, so this is just another chance to put time into each other. As there is no flat in the TT, there isn’t a real chance for a tester like Alec Segaert to get ahead, so this should be a pure climbing test. Not really much else to say, other than as this is part one of a two-stage day, how the riders conserve energy will be really interesting, as the afternoon is no squeeze either…

Stage 8: Les Karellis – Col du Mont Cenis (69.6km)

Not the hardest mountain stage ever, but with Loze the day before and the mountain TT in the morning, this makes the penultimate stage a lot harder. Uphill all the way from the start, including an early cat three at 18km raced, the climbing continues to the top of the cat two Montee d’Aussois, 6.5km at 6.2%, which tops out at 37.5km raced.

The first real downhill comes after that, as the riders then climb up to 64.5km raced, which is the top of the Col du Mont Cenis, 9.7km at 7%, so another tricky but constant climb. From the top, there is a very slight downhill, followed by rolling roads all the way to the finish. This, to me at least, feels like a sprint between a few climbers, but let’s see.

Stage 9: Val Cenis – Sainte Foy Tarentaise (100.4km)

I’m not exactly sure what to make of the last stage. It’s similar to the last day last year, where the riders go to high altitude midway through, before a long descent is followed by a much smaller climb to the line. It wasn’t effective at all last year in creating exciting GC action, but it did make for an exciting break day. The Madeleine/Iseran combo get’s a second chance here.

The riders go up the Madelaine early on, officially just 3.7km at 7.2%, before rolling to the foot of the Iseran, 12.9km at 7.3%, summiting with 37.5km raced and an altitude of 2750m. A very long, stepped descent to Seez follows, where the riders will have about 18km to go.

From Seez, they go up the cat two Montes du Vilaret (8.6km at 5.7%) with about 9.5km to go. That 9.5km is split in half, downhill and then the final 4.8km of the race, uphill at 8.4% to the line. The final of this race is a lot harder than last year’s race, so there is a chance those two climbs could create GC action, or further hurt anyone cracked on the Iseran. Let’s see if this stage is an improvement on last year, or another damp GC squib. I’m optimistic though!

The Contenders

Winner Candidates: Johannes Staune-Mittet (Norway), Hannes Wilksch (Germany)

Podium Contenders: Mathys Rondel (France), William Junior Lecerf (Belgium), Davide Piganzoli (Italy), Isaac del Toro (Mexico), Tijmen Graat (Netherlands), Matt Riccitello (USA)

Outsiders: Archie Ryan (Ireland), German Dario Gomez (Colombia), Simon Dalby (Denmark), Enekoitz Azparren (Spain), Loe Van Belle (Netherlands), Jan Christen (Switzerland), Johannes Kulset (Norway), Alec Segaert (Belgium)

Jokers: Alexander Hajek (Austria), Antoine Huby (France), Fernando Tercero (Spain), Per Strand Hagenes (Norway), Michael Leonard (Canada)

The place to start the contenders with should be the man who was second last year. Johannes Staune-Mittet was pretty comfortably the second best man in the race after Cian Uijtdebroeks, and the future Jumbo-Visma pro is another year older and wiser, and has had a stellar season, winning his firs pro race with a Czech Tour stage and winning the U23 Giro. The one wrinkle in the plan: after winning in Czechia, he got sick and was DNS the next day, and he also didn’t do the Worlds TT or RR. So, we do need to see if he has lot fitness, of is skipping the Worlds let him train and get it back. Luckily, he does have some time to ride into the race. We know he can climb, and an uphill TT should suit him well, plus Norway are among the best TTT squads. I think it’s still very fair to make him the top favourite.

The other man I think has a great shot to win this is Hannes Wilksch. After coming 7^th both here and the U23 Giro last year, the now-Tudor pro went away last offseason and got even better for his last U23 season. He has aimed his whole year at the U23 Giro and this race, and it feels like he has not missed a beat: 3^rd or Orlen GP, 3^rd at U23 Giro. Hannes himself would tell you he’s probably not the punchiest rider, more of a diesel, but the long climbs here will really suit him, as will the multiple climb days, plus that mountain TT/mountain road stage should suit a guy with his stamina. With Teutenberg, Kretschy and Theiler to go with Wilksch for the TTT, that’s very solid too. Believe in the German.

I’ve put 5 riders in the podium contender section, and I still feel I could have added more. Let me be clear, some of the outsider section guys probably should be here, I just didn’t want to take the piss with how many I selected.

Anyway, I will start with the rider I think could be the best pure climber at this race: Mathys Rondel. The Tudor Devo man is a gem, already electric at last year’s Ronde de l’Isard. In his second year as a U23, he has come 2^nd in Alsace, 19^th at the Giro (remember Wilksch was the big leader there) and 8^th at Orlen GP. France has a good team for the TTT, and the mountain days will suit him. He could be an awful pick from me here, but I really believe the backloaded course with so many climbs will suit him. I hope he lights up the race.

4^th in Alsace, William Junior Lecerf looks to be in good form and has had yet another strong season, proving why Soudal-QuickStep have turned him pro. After a good Giro last year (4^th) and 3^rd at the pro Tour of Rwanda this year, William has shown he can handle the long stage races. He was 8^th at the Giro this year, but I think he’s gotten a lot better since that race, and see no reason why he cannot be in the podium hunt at least. I mean, we all know Belgium stand a good chance of winning the TTT, so he could get an advantage going into the climbs, where he is certainly one of the best.

Whilst his form isn’t quite what it was last year, Davide Piganzoli needs to be in the podium battle. 9^th at Tour de Hongarie and 2^nd in Orlen GP, last year’s 5^th place man should look to improve. Pros for the EOLO Kometa man: he can climb really well, isn’t half bad at TTs either, and has a good Italian team, with strong climbers like Pinarello and Pellizzari, plus three solid puncheurs in Villa, Romele and Busatto. The cons: he’s barely raced since June, and there is a chance his team split GC with stage hunting, as there are a few stages for puncheurs and attackers. Either way, he should do well.

As of right now, I’m not sure if he’s riding, but I see no reason why Isaac del Toro shouldn’t be here for Mexico. 3^rd in Aosta and 10^th at both Sibiu and Course de la Paix, the man is a classy climber. He skipped the Worlds, presumably to train and be good for this race, and he should compete for the podium. The knocks against him is I don’t think his team will be good at the TTT, and he is yet to do a stage race over 5 stages, so those last few days, when he needs to be at his best, is a bit of an unknown. I’m aware he’s a risky pick here, but the talent is worth it, just like Rondel.

Tijmen Graat has had a terrific season, earning a WorldTour contract with Jumbo-Visma starting 2025. He won Istrian Spring Tour and Palio del Recioto, was 11^th at Coppi e Bartali, 13^th at Alpes Isere, 9^th as he led JSM to the Giro win and 5^th overall at the Czech Tour. This man is a born stage racer/climber. Maybe not the best TT rider, the mountain TT suits him way more than a flat one, but I’m not sure if the Dutch will top 5 the TTT, so he could lose some time to the top favourites there in that discipline, even if the Dutch are never ever bad at a TTT. The big thing will be how does he ride under pressure, as the top guy. I want to see him battle for a top result and do well in every stage, but it remains to be seen. Either way, this is great practice for 2024, where he should be Jumbo-Visma Devo’s top GC guy, along with the incoming Jorgen Nordhagen.

After making his Grand Tour debut at the elite Giro, the USA come here with Matt Riccitello for GC. He’s a great climber, who was 11^th in the mountain TT at the Giro, and I expect him to be strong. He is at the end of my podium list for a few reasons though: a) no races since mid-June as he recovered from the Giro, but he was 14^th at Mont Ventoux Challenge. B) Only 5 guys in the US team, not ideal for the TTT, even if they are a strong five. And c) they have Colby Simmons and Luke Lamperti, with the latter being THE in-form sprinter coming here, so with just five guys, Matt should help Luke early on, which has its dangers and also means burning matches. But with that being said, I don’t see why he cannot go well here.

Archie Ryan is the X-factor in this race. He has a total of one race day as he recovered from a knee injury, but it was a week before this race and he was 4^th, so the form is decent. Going into this race though, the Irish team did face a bit more of a disadvantage in the TTT, and we have no idea if Ryan has the legs in the big mountains, so deep into a long and hectic race. 4^th last year and already a pro race winner, we know how good the future EF man is, it’s just if this race is coming too soon. Only time will tell us the answer.

Current Colombian U23 ITT champ, 4^th at the U23 Giro and winner of the U23 Tour of Colombia, German Dario Gomez is a good outsider for this race. Let’s be real, the Colombians have been pretty terrible at GC at this race since Ivan Sosa came 6^th in 2018. Jhojan Garcia was 8^th a year later, and they’ve not cracked the top 20 in the last two editions. Their leaders seem to struggle to hold form in Europe this late on, but I’m a big Gomez fan and want to see him do well. The TTT will be a disadvantage, but I think he can be a factor uphill. With that being said, there is a lot against him, so it’s outsider status only.

Maybe 2024 is more the year for a Simon Dalby GC bid here, but I’m sticking the Dane as an outsider anyway. Signed to Uno-X for 2025, Simon won the queen stage and came 2^nd in the Course de la Paix, showcasing his talent. He’s not raced much since, and didn’t do that well on Planche des Belles Filles in Alsace. But he has a strong Danish team for the TTT, with Bevort, Wang, Foldager, Gudnitz and Holm Jorgensen, so he has a chance to gain some time. Maybe that team is more for stage wins, but I hope Simon can get in the GC battle and take another step in his promising development.

As we have come to expect from the Spanish in the U23 races, they are bringing mostly pro riders. I have Fernando Tercero as a joker, as despite his vast experience, his form is trending downwards after good GCs in Coppi Bartali and Asturias. He should be helping Euskaltel’s Enekoitz Azparren. He raced to 8^th in Course de la Paix this year, and did well in the mountains last year. He has WT admirers if you believe the Spanish press, and with Ivan Romeo, Jorge Gutierrez, Xabier Isasa, RR and TT champ Unai Aznar and Tercero, that’s one of the best climbing teams. Be prepared for TTT losses though.

Let’s talk about Loe Van Belle. I was shocked when Loe Van Belle was 9^th here last season, and he is again looking strong. I’ll be honest with you: I have no idea what type of rider he is. He has punch, is fast in a sprint, was even 2^nd at the U23 Giro… he’s very impressive. His shape looked good at the U23 Worlds, so I expect him to do well here, but let’s see if he goes for stages, or can hold a GC bid, which he didn’t do at the Giro when he helped JSM. He may need to help Graat, if he keeps his Czech Tour form.

Stomach problems derailed Jan Christen’s Worlds bid, but 9^th in the TT (with a really badly timed mechanical that stopped him for a podium, definitely at least top five) showed his legs were good. The UAE man has a very experienced Swiss team, including Fabio, his big brother. Elsewhere, we have Tendon, Donze, Blum and Weiss, so that’s a strong TTT team. He rode to 7^th with a stage win at the U23 Giro, and won the European U23 uphill TT champs (let’s not talk about the lack of quality in the field for that race, come on UEC), so the mountain TT can be good for hin. He’s very young, but he deserves to be at least an outsider.

Let me highlight young Johannes Kulset. I’m about 90% sure he will be back here next year as Norway’s top leader, but even this year, he has a chance to ride really well on GC. 14^th at Tour of the Alps (against Giro contenders), 3^rd at Alpes Isere and 8^th at pro Sibiu Tour show the massive climbing talent the future Uno-X man is. He may take it easy and save himself for the climbs, he may sacrifice it all for JSM, I have no idea. But he is too good to not be mentioned, even if he is a first year.

My final outsider is Alec Segaert, because fuck it, why not? He’s a machine, and seeing him up close in the U23 RR, I was blown away by his strength. Let’s get the cons out the way: he has Lecerf to work for, and he would for sure prefer a flat TT a la U23 Giro, instead of a mountain one. But the Belgians, as I said, will do a good TTT, and he was fricking 11^th on GC at the U23 Giro, with sparkling form right now. Plus, he was 2^nd in the last mountain stage last year, which amazed me too. He is just an outsider, but I’m captaining the hype train for the potential mountainous week-long stage race GC man this guy could become.

My Joker list contains riders I’m not yet sure what style of rider they are, if they can go for GC in a mountainous stage race (Michael Leonard, Joe Blackmore), maybe not in 100% health and again not yet proven in big mountains (Per Strand Hagenes) or are yet to prove themselves in the big mountains (Lukas Nerurkar, Antonio Morgado, Antoine Huby, Alex Hajek). I’ll keep following them all closely.