Scott Yuknis’ Post

Good Monday morning! As we begin the first week of fall in the Northern Hemisphere the tropics appear to be becoming a little less active. Expect some delays in the Chicago/Houston areas early this morning due to thunderstorms moving through these terminal areas. The Niger airspace (DRRR) remains open to all but French registered aircraft per notam A1168/23. Mt POPO near MMPB in Central Mexico remains active this morning with sigmets to FL 200. Ash is drifting to the SW per the latest advisories. Tropical Outlook Indian Ocean basin / West Pacific - East Pacific - TD 13W, located 70nm East of Dan Nang, Vietnam will dissipate in the next 18 hours. Otherwise, no real concerns to speak of. Atlantic - TS Philippe, will not impact any land masses. Severe weather outlook for the CONUS - marginal risks exist for the next three days as described by SPC, however no widespread outbreaks are likely. Europe - per ESTOFEX a few severe thunderstorms are likely today over portions of Southern Italy to Albania for all types of severe weather. This activity is being caused by the upper level low over the Ionian Sea with high vorticity. This system will gradually weaken and sink South over the next few days. Storm AGNES is likely to have significant impacts on Ireland the the UK on Wednesday per the latest EURO model. Yellow warnings have been issued for much of the region for heavy rain and very gusty winds. North Atlantic jet stream analysis - upper level low to the South of Iceland will continue to influence the jet for much of this week resulting in the jet core remaining from the Mid Atlantic States to the UK with velocities in excess of 100 knots. Images courtesy of wxcharts.com, pivotalweather.com, tropicaltidbits.com, UK met office weather prediction center, aviation weather center,  weathernerds.org, tomer polar/tropical weather and the joint typhoon warning center.

Good Wednesday Morning! Plenty to discuss this morning especially in regard to the tropics. Also, F1 race in Singapore from 15-17 Sept will create parking issues.  Finally, per notam a7908/23 Bos airport will be closed to non-SKED transient GA ACFT unless you have a PPR through the Labor Day weekend. Extended global tropics hazards outlook  Please see the latest graphic from the CPC for possible tropical activity through the Labor Day weekend. It looks quite active over multiple regions. Tropical Outlook Indian Ocean basin / West Pacific - TS Lan continues to dissipate as it moves towards the Sea of Okhotsk. Atlantic - nothing imminent, but a few areas will have to be watched over the next several days per the latest NHC discussion.  Eastern Pacific - EP90, a broad area of low pressure, several hundred miles SSE of Manzanillo, Mexico continues to show signs of development. There is still considerable model discrepancy about the future evolution of this possible tropical cyclone. I have included a few images from the EURO and GFS model showing possible impacts on Baja CA into regions of the desert SW including SOCAL with the possibility of heavy rain and flooding. Severe weather outlook for the CONUS - slight risk exists through tonight over the upper Mississippi River valley area with severe wind and hail the primary concerns. As we get into the weekend a very large upper ridge will dominate over much of the central US, reducing the possibility of severe weather. Severe weather outlook for Europe - no official forecast from Estofex today.  Thursday looks to fairly active in terms of thunderstorms, from Southern Poland towards Northern Italy. Less thunderstorm activity appears likely by Friday. Europe - main story over the next three days will be the approaching area of low pressure over Western Ireland and its associated frontal system which will bring periods of showers and low topped thunderstorms to the UK and Ireland on Friday. Otherwise, the upper-level ridge will be building into central Europe over the weekend resulting in very warm temperatures and dry conditions. Images courtesy of wxcharts.com, pivotalweather.com, tropicaltidbits.com, Australian met office, UK met office weather prediction center, aviation weather center, weathernerds.org, and the joint typhoon warning center.

🌀 Tropics Alert 🌀Attention Long Islanders! ⚠️ The tropics are buzzing with activity! With multiple systems on the weather map, we're reminded once again of the unpredictable nature of Mother Nature. But while the weather remains uncertain, your power supply doesn't have to be. Don't get caught in the dark. Equip your home with emergency standby power from Long Island Power Systems and ensure your lights stay on, your fridge keeps running, and your devices stay charged no matter what the forecast. ⚡ Remember, it's not about predicting the weather; it's about being prepared for it. 🌩️ 🔋 Contact us today for more information on the best backup power solutions tailored for your needs. Stay safe, and stay powered! #TropicsAlert #BePrepared #LIPowerSystems #StayPowered #HurricaneSeason

🌀Storm Watch: Eye on the Tropics🌀 In addition to #HurricaneHilary, MD Claims Group continues to closely monitor the development of the following 4 systems in The Tropics: 1️⃣ Western Gulf of Mexico: The probability for devolpment over the next 7 days has increased to 50% as it tracks towards the Gulf of Mexico. We're monitoring its progress as it approaches the western Gulf coastline by the middle of next week. 2️⃣ East-Southeast of Lesser Antilles: This system is travelling across the Lesser Antilles and over the eastern and central Caribbean Sea. It's producing some disorganized showers and thunderstorms with the potential for gradual development through the weekend. (10% chance over 48 hours, 30% chance over 7 days) 3️⃣ Central Tropical Atlantic (AL99): This area of low pressure is about halfway between the Cabo Verde Islands and the Lesser Antilles. It's producing limited showers and thunderstorms and will face unfavorable conditions for further development over the next few days. (30% chance over 48 hours, 30% over 7 days) 4️⃣ Eastern Tropical Atlantic (AL98): Showers and thunderstorms west of the Cabo Verde Islands continue to organize and will meet favorable conditions for further development this weekend. A tropical depression is expected to form, however upper-level winds will likely limit growth. (70% chance over 48 hours, 70% over 7 days) As always, MD Claims Group is prepared to provide best-in-class service to our carrier partners, nationwide, in the event any storm makes landfall. If you are not currently on our roster for deployment, please send your resume to info@MDClaimsGroup.com. #MDClaimsGroup #WeatherAlert #BePrepared #StaySafe #Hurricane #TropicalStorm #Claims #ClaimsAdjuster #PropertyAdjuster #PropertyInsurance

The March 2024 Global Marine Heat Wave Discussion and Outlook During the past decade marine heat waves (MHW) have dramatically increased their presence, aerial coverage, and duration poleward of the deep tropics in both hemispheres. The influence on climate is dramatic and warrants application of a 10-year optimum climate normal (OCN) both to generating seasonal forecasts and explaining climate regime observations on an annual, seasonal, and monthly basis. In February 2024, MHW’s occupied 38% of the global oceans ranking 5th during all months since 1991 according to NOAA.   Of concern, are MHW’s in the tropical/subtropical North Atlantic forecast to strengthen dramatically increasing the risk of stronger hurricanes due to the plentiful upper ocean heat. Record warm SSTA is possible based on the NMME global SSTA forecasts.   Entering a second year is a strong MHW in the eastern North Atlantic basin forecast to strengthen. Upper-level high pressure ridge risk downwind of the MHW has increased risk warranting hot and dry concerns for summertime in Europe.   Interestingly, a semi-permanent Northeast Pacific MHW is not forecast to return this year (despite the NMME forecast) with strong warm SSTA intensity staying westward near Japan to the Dateline. Increased risk of stronger than normal subtropical ridging to produce unusual heat across East China and Japan is likely.   Additionally, the Indonesia/West Pacific tropical waters are forecast to develop strong MHW conditions. The far West Pacific tropics/subtropics are likely to observe above normal typhoons. Southeast Asia drought should reverse. MHW influence on the Indian Monsoon is not well-understood.   MHW’s south of Africa and Australia and in the vicinity of New Zealand are steady or weaken slightly in 2024. The lack of MHW’s either side of the mid-latitude coastline of South America suggest increased risk of a winter upper-level trough and attendant cold weather risk possibly reaching Brazil.